New Seat Details - Nottingham North

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	28,429	62.9%
CON	12,881	28.5%
UKIP	2,024	4.5%
LIB	1,026	2.3%
Green	752	1.7%
OTH	67	0.1%
LAB Majority	15,548	34.4%

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Nottingham North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Nottingham North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Nottingham North

Old seat: Nottingham East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Nottingham	Arboretum	6,187	Nottingham East and Carlton	929	3,973	134	108	93	0	0	44	5,281
Nottingham	Berridge	10,694	Nottingham North	1,484	5,412	227	110	135	0	0	34	7,402
Nottingham	Dales	10,035	Nottingham East and Carlton	1,395	4,849	97	147	104	0	0	40	6,632
Nottingham	Mapperley	9,964	Nottingham East and Carlton	1,849	3,944	175	144	117	0	0	32	6,261
Nottingham	Sherwood	10,027	Nottingham North	1,580	3,921	275	144	124	0	0	33	6,077
Nottingham	St Ann's	10,225	Nottingham East and Carlton	1,276	6,002	96	164	125	0	0	13	7,676
	Total	57,132		8,513	28,101	1,004	817	698	0	0	196	39,329

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Nottingham North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Nottingham	Aspley	9,855	Nottingham North	1,734	4,674	79	372	95	0	0	0	6,954
Nottingham	Basford	10,921	Nottingham North	2,142	3,651	105	353	127	0	0	0	6,378
Nottingham	Bestwood	11,216	Nottingham North	1,994	4,012	123	372	132	0	0	0	6,633
Nottingham	Bilborough	11,620	Nottingham West and Beeston	2,090	3,970	151	364	46	0	0	0	6,621
Nottingham	Bulwell	10,988	Nottingham North	1,962	3,903	82	366	53	0	0	0	6,366
Nottingham	Bulwell Forest	10,127	Nottingham North	1,985	2,856	135	307	86	0	0	0	5,369
	Total	64,727		11,907	23,066	675	2,134	539	0	0	0	38,321

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Nottingham North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Nottingham North
Nottingham	Aspley	12,139	Nottingham North	1,734	4,674	79	372	95	0	0	0	6,954
Nottingham	Basford	11,133	Nottingham North	2,142	3,651	105	353	127	0	0	0	6,378
Nottingham	Berridge	11,624	Nottingham East	1,484	5,412	227	110	135	0	0	34	7,402
Nottingham	Bestwood	11,579	Nottingham North	1,994	4,012	123	372	132	0	0	0	6,633
Nottingham	Bulwell	11,113	Nottingham North	1,962	3,903	82	366	53	0	0	0	6,366
Nottingham	Bulwell Forest	9,373	Nottingham North	1,985	2,856	135	307	86	0	0	0	5,369
Nottingham	Sherwood	9,543	Nottingham East	1,580	3,921	275	144	124	0	0	33	6,077
	Total	76,504		12,881	28,429	1,026	2,024	752	0	0	67	45,179

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Nottingham North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Alex Norris (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,504
Turnout:	59.1%

Nottingham North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Nottingham North: Overview